2021-11-172021-11-172010TEIXEIRA, Anderson Mutter; DIAS, Maria Helena Ambrosio; DIAS, Joilson. A conduta de política monetária do Banco Central e o efeito calendário no Brasil. Economia Aplicada, Ribeirão Preto, v. 14, n. 3, p. 293-311, set. 2010.1413-8050e- 1980-5330http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/handle/ri/20029Monetary policy conduct has officially become inflation targeting in Brazil since 1999. In this regime, expectations play a special role, and the interest rate is usually operated as instrument. This paper estimates the time structure of the inflation rate expectations (calendar effect) in the Brazilian economy, from 2001 to 2008, monthly. The empirical analysis applies the method of Auto-Regression Vectors (VAR) to account for the effects of six months ahead forward-looking inflation expectations to interest rate determination, from a reaction function suggested by new macroeconomic consensus. Yet, it takes Granger causality functions, impulse- response analysis and variance decomposition to reach the conclusions. The results suggest that calendar effect has relatively low performance in determining interest rate. Moreover, Brazilian Central Bank is aware of the variations of output gap.porAcesso AbertoPolítica monetáriaMonetary policyNovo consenso macroeconômicoTaxas de jurosNew consensus macroeconomicsInterest ratesCentral BankBanco CentralArtigo10.1590/S1413-80502010000300002