Areas of climate stability of species ranges in the brazilian cerrado: disentangling uncertainties through time
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Data
2012-11
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Resumo
Recognizing the location of climatically stable areas in the future is subjected to uncertainties from ecological niche models,
climatic models, variation in species ranges responses, and from the climatic variation through time. Here, we proposed an
approach based on hierarchical ANOVA to reduce uncertainties and to identify climatically stable areas, working with Cerrado
tree species as a model organism. Ecological niche models were generated for 18 Cerrado tree species and their potential
distributions were projected into past and future. Analyses of the sources of uncertainties in ensembles hindcasts/forecasts
revealed that the time component was the most important source of variation, whereas the climatic models had the smallest
effect. The species responses to climate changes do not showed marked differences within each time period. By comparing
past and future predictions, a single continuous climatically stable area was identified, which should be considered as a potential
improvement for spatial prioritization for conservation.
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Climate change, Climatically stable areas, Ensemble forecasting, Ecological niche models, Systematic conservation planning
Citação
TERRIBILE, Levi Carina; LIMA-RIBEIRO, Matheus de Souza; ARAÚJO, Miguel Bastos; BIZÃO, Nair; COLLEVATTI, Rosane Garcia; DOBROVOLSKI, Ricardo; FRANCO, Amanda Assis; GUILHAUMON, François; LIMA, Jacqueline de S.; MURAKAMI, D. M.; NABOUT, João Carlos; OLIVEIRA, G. ; OLIVEIRA, Leciane K.; RABELO, Suelen G.; RANGEL, Thiago Fernando; SIMON, L. M.; SOARES, T. N.; TELLES, M. P. C.; DINIZ-FILHO, José Alexandre F. Areas of climate stability of species ranges in the Brazilian Cerrado: disentangling uncertainties through time. Natureza & Conservação, v. 10, p. 152-159, 2012. Disponível em: < http://doi.editoracubo.com.br/10.4322/natcon.2012.025>.