A stochastic, evolutionary model for range shifts and richness on tropical elevational gradients under Quaternary glacial cycles
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Data
2010-10
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Editor
The Royal Society Publishing
Resumo
Quaternary glacial–interglacial cycles repeatedly forced thermal zones up and down the slopes of
mountains, at all latitudes. Although no one doubts that these temperature cycles have left their
signature on contemporary patterns of geography and phylogeny, the relative roles of ecology and
evolution are not well understood, especially for the tropics. To explore key mechanisms and their
interactions in the context of chance events, we constructed a geographical range-based, stochastic
simulation model that incorporates speciation, anagenetic evolution, niche conservatism, range
shifts and extinctions under late Quaternary temperature cycles along tropical elevational gradients.
In the model, elevational patterns of species richness arise from the differential survival of founder
lineages, consolidated by speciation and the inheritance of thermal niche characteristics. The
model yields a surprisingly rich variety of realistic patterns of phylogeny and biogeography, including
close matches to a variety of contemporary elevational richness profiles from an elevational transect in
Costa Rica. Mountaintop extinctions during interglacials and lowland extinctions at glacial maxima
favour mid-elevation lineages, especially under the constraints of niche conservatism. Asymmetry
in temperature (greater duration of glacial than of interglacial episodes) and in lateral area (greater
land area at low than at high elevations) have opposing effects on lowland extinctions and the
elevational pattern of species richness in the model—and perhaps in nature, as well.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Biogeography, Extinction, Mid-domain effect, Simulation, Speciation, Stochastic model
Citação
COLWELL, Robert K.; RANGEL, Thiago F. A stochastic, evolutionary model for range shifts and richness on tropical elevational gradients under Quaternary glacial cycles. Philosophical Transactions oh the Royal Society B. Biological Sciences, Londres, v. 365, p. 3695-3707, Oct. 2010.