Relações de causalidade entre energia e crescimento econômico no Brasil
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Data
2013
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Resumo
The present work aimed to find the causality relations between energy consumption
and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and also between the energy offer
and GDP in Brazil, during 1970-2007. Following the econometrics proceedings,
we observed that the series were non-stationeries in level, however they
were stationery in first difference, and also that the series were co-integrated.
Using the vector error correction model (VEC) we analyzed the causality of the
short and long term. The results suggest the existence of bi-causality between
PIB and energy consumption in long term and the unidirectional causality
coming from GDP directed to energy consumption. We also suggested the existence
of bi-causality between energy offer and GDP in short term, and unidirectional
causality of energy offer directed to PIB. These results give important
politic implications that can orient the decisions of policy makers in respect
of the future energy policy, aiming the Brazilian sustainable economic growth.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Causalidade, Crescimento econômico, Energia, Brasil, Modelo VEC, Causality, Economic growth, Energy, Brazil, Vector error correction model
Citação
CARMINATI, João Guilherme de Oliveira; SCALCO, Paulo Roberto. Relações de causalidade entre energia e crescimento econômico no Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Energia, Itajubá, v. 19, n. 2, p. 355-374, 2013.