Areas of climate stability of species ranges in the brazilian cerrado: disentangling uncertainties through time

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dc.creatorTerribile, Levi Carina
dc.creatorLima-Ribeiro, Matheus Souza
dc.creatorAraújo, Miguel Bastos
dc.creatorBizão, Nair
dc.creatorCollevatt, Rosane Garcia
dc.creatorDobrovolski, Ricardo
dc.creatorFranco, Amanda Assis
dc.creatorGuilhaumon, François
dc.creatorLima, Jacqueline de Souza
dc.creatorMurakami, Devanir Mitsuyuki
dc.creatorNabout, João Carlos
dc.creatorOliveira, Guilherme de
dc.creatorOliveira, Leciane Karita de
dc.creatorRabelo, Suelen Gonçalves
dc.creatorRangel, Thiago Fernando
dc.creatorSimon, Lorena Mendes
dc.creatorSoares, Thannya Nascimento
dc.creatorTelles, Mariana Pires de Campos
dc.creatorDiniz Filho, José Alexandre Felizola
dc.date.accessioned2015-10-05T00:34:40Z
dc.date.available2015-10-05T00:34:40Z
dc.date.issued2012-11
dc.description.abstractRecognizing the location of climatically stable areas in the future is subjected to uncertainties from ecological niche models, climatic models, variation in species ranges responses, and from the climatic variation through time. Here, we proposed an approach based on hierarchical ANOVA to reduce uncertainties and to identify climatically stable areas, working with Cerrado tree species as a model organism. Ecological niche models were generated for 18 Cerrado tree species and their potential distributions were projected into past and future. Analyses of the sources of uncertainties in ensembles hindcasts/forecasts revealed that the time component was the most important source of variation, whereas the climatic models had the smallest effect. The species responses to climate changes do not showed marked differences within each time period. By comparing past and future predictions, a single continuous climatically stable area was identified, which should be considered as a potential improvement for spatial prioritization for conservation.pt_BR
dc.identifier.citationTERRIBILE, Levi Carina; LIMA-RIBEIRO, Matheus de Souza; ARAÚJO, Miguel Bastos; BIZÃO, Nair; COLLEVATTI, Rosane Garcia; DOBROVOLSKI, Ricardo; FRANCO, Amanda Assis; GUILHAUMON, François; LIMA, Jacqueline de S.; MURAKAMI, D. M.; NABOUT, João Carlos; OLIVEIRA, G. ; OLIVEIRA, Leciane K.; RABELO, Suelen G.; RANGEL, Thiago Fernando; SIMON, L. M.; SOARES, T. N.; TELLES, M. P. C.; DINIZ-FILHO, José Alexandre F. Areas of climate stability of species ranges in the Brazilian Cerrado: disentangling uncertainties through time. Natureza & Conservação, v. 10, p. 152-159, 2012. Disponível em: < http://doi.editoracubo.com.br/10.4322/natcon.2012.025>.pt_BR
dc.identifier.doi10.4322/natcon.2012.025
dc.identifier.urihttp://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/handle/ri/11014
dc.language.isoengpt_BR
dc.publisher.countrybrasilpt_BR
dc.publisher.programPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Evoluçãopt_BR
dc.rightsAcesso Abertopt_BR
dc.subjectClimate changept_BR
dc.subjectClimatically stable areaspt_BR
dc.subjectEnsemble forecastingpt_BR
dc.subjectEcological niche modelspt_BR
dc.subjectSystematic conservation planningpt_BR
dc.titleAreas of climate stability of species ranges in the brazilian cerrado: disentangling uncertainties through timept_BR
dc.typeArtigopt_BR

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