Crescimento das exportações de carne bovina brasileira entre 2005 e 2015: fatores econômicos
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2018-04-16
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Universidade Federal de Goiás
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The goal of this study is to identify the economic determinants responsible for the growth of
Brazilian beef exports between 2005 and 2015, since, nowadays, Brazil maintains its
position as the top exporter of this product. Furthermore, the study is extended to the
elaboration of a theoretical model that explains this growth, through the specification of an
econometric model, and an analysis regarding the impact of the explanatory variables on
development of the quantum of beef exported by Brazil. A time series econometric model
was developed, specifically a Vector Self-Regression Model with the correction of errors, with
Bernanke identification. The results for the matrix of contemporary relations indicate that,
differently from the expected result of the theoretical model, the retail price affects
negatively the beef exports. A positive shock of 1% on that variable reduces the exports by
0,1%, approximately. Similarly, the cattle stock also showed an inverse relation with beef
exports, but with a very low magnitude. As for the beef volume, it was observed that a 1%
shock in that variable raises the exports in approximately 0,35%. The results obtained from
the Impulse-Response Function indicate that cattle stock is a relevant variable in the
explication of Brazilian beef exports, and also a non-anticipated shock in that variable results
in a long term adjustment for most variables in the model. Through the decomposition of
variance of forecast errors of the exports, it was observed that at the end of fourteen
trimesters the currency exchange rate was responsible for approximately 10,7% of the error
variance.
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LIMA, R. P. Crescimento das exportações de carne bovina brasileira entre 2005 e 2015: fatores econômicos. 2018. 84 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2018.