2014-11-202013-02-18SOUZA, Rodrigo Antônio de. A distribuição de uma espécie incomum: a utilização de modelos baseados em nicho ecológico para predizer a distribuição futura do desmatamento na amazônia brasileira. 2013. 163 f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciências Ambientais) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2013.http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/3650The Amazon forest is being cleared, burned, fragmented and over-exploited at unprecedented scales. As important as the punishment for environmental crimes, it is the prevention. This requires the identification of deforestation facilitators and deforestation mitigators, beyond the knowledge of where the combination of these factors makes it more likely the occurrence of deforestation. If there is a combination of conditions that increase the deforestation probability in a particular area, it is possible estimate potential areas of new deforestation using Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM). The main objective of this study is to test the efficiency of ENMs to define potential areas of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. In the last chapters, we raise the factors relevant to the current deforestation and that can be inputs for modeling. For this, we test the relationship between size of farms, government custody areas, agricultural technification and law enforcements with deforestation. In later chapters we use ENMs, first considering an area in western Brazilian Amazon and comparing with other models established in the literature. Subsequently, we consider the entire Brazilian Amazon and check the ENM efficiency along the deforestation frontier gradient of the municipalities. Potential areas created from the ENM, demonstrated great effectiveness in predicting new areas of deforestation, especially in regions where forest loss is very active. Thus, we can to consider these models as a tool for action of command and control planning, reducing money costs and time. Moreover, we find that the presence of the governance in the Amazon region, either by government custody areas, or punitive actions, reduces deforestation. Deforestation continues to happen in large properties, however small farms deforest more than the law allows in its limits. The municipalities with obsolete agricultural practices are the most deforested.application/pdfAcesso AbertoAmazôniaDesmatamentoModelagemModelos baseados em nicho ecológicoAções de comando e controleAmazonDeforestationModelingEcological niche modelsCommand and control actionsENGENHARIA TERMICA::CONTROLE AMBIENTALTese