2021-03-302021-03-302021-02-26SANTOS, M. G. J. Retorno e risco de culturas temporárias para a agricultura familiar no Distrito Federal. 2021. 52 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Agronegócio) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2021.http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/11209The risk of agricultural activity is a relevant indicator for decision-making, especially for family farming. The present work sought to evaluate the sources of production and market risk for the following temporary crops: garlic, sweet potatoes, irrigated beans, dry beans, harvest corn, offseason corn, soybeans and sorghum through data simulations (productive cost, yield and price) to better understand which of the temporary crops is viable for family farmers in the Federal District. The analysis model was based on the Monte Carlo method, which allows the analysis, using data from Emater-DF (Production cost), CONAB (for average monthly prices) and SIDRA/IBGE (agricultural yield) to obtain gross margin (GM) and benefit/cost (B/C). A total of 5000 iterations were performed, obtaining the standard deviation, coefficient of variance, average, maximum and minimum indicators for each culture. The results indicate that family farmers who are risk averse should opt for temporary crops such as garlic, sweet potatoes and soybeans, which presented a lower risk level and presented a higher expected return.Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 InternationalMargem brutaMonte CarloDesenvolvimento ruralGross marginMonte CarloRural developmentCIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIAS AGRARIA E DOS RECURSOS NATURAISDissertação