Beyond the green: socioeconomic and climatic pressures on native vegetation in the Araguaia biodiversity corridor

Abstract

This study examines how climatic and socioeconomic variables influence native vegetation across 108 municipalities along the Araguaia Biodiversity Corridor (ABC), a strategic region in Brazil that connects Amazonian and Cerrado biomes. The corridor was defined as a 40-km-wide buffer along the Tocantins and Araguaia Rivers (20 km each side), based on ecological connectivity principles and supported by federal bill PL 909/2024. We characterized municipalities using land use, climate, and socioeconomic indicators, then modeled native vegetation with a spatial error model to account for spatial dependence. A Socioenvironmental Pressure Index (SPI) was derived to flag municipalities with less or more vegetation than expected after accounting for covariates. Current SPI was also compared with long-term changes (1985–2024) in some predictors. On average, municipalities retained 47 % native vegetation, with variation across the corridor. Land use was the strongest determinant of native vegetation, with larger shares of soybean and pasture associated with less vegetation cover. Higher gross domestic product and population density also correlate with lower vegetation cover. Protected area had a modest positive effect, and climatic predictors had no effect. The SPI flagged five pressure hotspots and two resilience hotspots, and was weakly dependent of long-term change, indicating that it captures deviations from socioeconomic and environmental baselines. Combining spatial econometrics with a residual-based pressure index yields decision-ready evidence at the municipal scale. These results indicate where restoration, regularization, and enforcement should be focused and support place-based policies and federal bill PL 909/2024 to formalize the ABC and align conservation with development.