Expansão urbana e modelagem de cenários hidrológicos em bacias hidrográficas de Goiânia-GO (2002-2030)
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2022-05-16
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Universidade Federal de Goiás
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Research focused on modeling environmental processes has historically presented diversified interests, with approaches sometimes linked to the collection of information and integration, sometimes linked to spatialization and systematization. In recent decades, this field of research has turned its attention to models with a predictive approach, which has gained special prominence in the academic world. This theme becomes important due to the context of occupation of urban drainage basins and the disturbances caused in surface hydrology. Thus, within the scope of predictive modeling, this thesis seeks to answer the following questions: a) How do modifications resulting from land cover changes impact runoff in watersheds with periods of concentrated precipitation? b) What is the behavior of runoff under different land cover conditions? c) What are the impacts of new urban expansions, considering runoff and peak flows as a function of the projection of new urban scenarios? To answer these questions, we start from the thesis that: the association between runoff prediction models and urban growth prediction models is an adequate technique for the estimation of runoff in urban and partially urbanized watersheds. The general objective is to develop a model to evaluate the hydrologic condition of small urban watersheds, based on the combination of the rational method and the establishment of a hydrologic pressure index. The methodological procedures involved the delimitation of watersheds; the mapping of different aspects of the physical environment; the choice and adaptation of both urban growth and hydrological models; as well as the execution of data processing; the implementation of equations; the use of R programming language and field work. The results allow us to evaluate that the hydrological pressure and the levels of modification, in the different hydrological variables of the urban basins evaluated, are at a high level of compromise, with the consequence of worsening urban hydrological problems. In the three basins analyzed, it was found that as the urban network evolves, the concentration time and infiltration capacity decrease, leading to an increase in the speed and amount of surface runoff flow. Regarding the evaluation of the hydrological conditioning factors of surface runoff in association with land cover, as proposed, the procedure of mapping and modeling and application of the Hydrological Pressure Index (HPI) is able to offer subsidies to think and structure public policies for planning and control of water in the urban environment. Finally, the analyses lead to the identification of a model of urban occupation in the context of the basins and variables analyzed, which can be extrapolated to basins at an immediately higher hierarchical level.
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SANTOS, R. L. Expansão urbana e modelagem de cenários hidrológicos em bacias hidrográficas de Goiânia-GO (2002-2030). 2022. 186 f. Tese (Doutorado em Geografia) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2022.