Dinâmicas demográficas e impactos ambientais nas regiões de fronteiras de ocupação amazônica

Abstract

This work seeks to understand how demographic dynamics and changes in land use and land occupation patterns are related to deforestation in the frontier regions of the Deforestation Arc in the Amazon. Analysis include temporal and spatial scale and have been conducted both within the general region and at the level of municipalities. Initially, we used descriptive techniques to characterize the different phases of land use and land occupation frontier. Then, a more detailed analysis is performed to identify the variables that are more related to deforestation in the region through regression models. Among the evaluated variables, the total pasture area is the one that best explains deforestation. Demographic variables are not good predictors but, together with social variables, they work well as indicators of the stage of the frontier. This is because changes in land use patterns have been shown to be more strongly linked to the increase in deforestation than, indeed, to population mobility.