Recovering species demographic history from multi-model inference: the case of a neotropical savanna tree species
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2014-10-11
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Background: Glaciations were recurrent throughout the Quaternary and potentially shaped species genetic structure
worldwide by affecting population dynamics. Here, we implemented a multi-model inference approach to recover the
distribution dynamics and demographic history of a Neotropical savanna tree, Tabebuia aurea (Bignoniaceae). Exploring
different algorithms and paleoclimatic simulations, we used ecological niche modelling to generate alternative
hypotheses of potential demographic changes through the last glacial cycle and estimated genetic parameters
using coalescent modelling.
Results: Comparing predictions from demographic hypotheses with genetic parameters of modern populations,
our findings revealed a likely scenario of population decline, with spatial displacement towards Northeast Brazil
from the last glacial maximum to the mid-Holocene. Subsequently, populations expanded in response to the
return of the climatically suitable conditions in Central-West Brazil. Nevertheless, a wide historical refugium across
Central Brazil likely maintained large populations connected throughout time. The expected genetic signatures
from such predicted distribution dynamics are also corroborated by spatial genetic structure observed in modern
populations.
Conclusion: By exploring uncertainties inherent in multiple working hypotheses, we have shown that multi-model
inference is a fruitful and efficient approach to recover the nature, timing and geographical context of the Tabebuia
aurea population dynamic in response to the Quaternary climate changes.
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Coalescent simulation, Ecological niche modelling, Genetic connectivity, Habitat tracking, Multiple working hypotheses, Quaternary climate changes
Citação
COLLEVATTI, Rosane G.; RIBEIRO, Matheus S. Lima; TERRIBILE, Levi Carina; GUEDES, Ludymila B. S.; ROSA, Fernanda F.; TELLES, Mariana P. C. Recovering species demographic history from multi-model inference: the case of a Neotropical savanna tree species. BMC Evolutionary Biology, v. 14, p. 213-226, Oct. 2014.