Use este identificador para citar ou linkar para este item: http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/handle/ri/11742
Tipo do documento: Artigo
Título: Stability of brazilian seasonally dry forests under climate change: inferences for long-term conservation
Autor: Collevatti, Rosane Garcia
Ribeiro, Matheus de Souza Lima
Diniz Filho, José Alexandre Felizola
Oliveira, Guilherme de
Dobrovolski, Ricardo
Terribile, Levi Carina
Abstract: We identified climatically stable areas of seasonally dry forests (SDFs) from Central Brazil through time and assessed the effectiveness of the current reserves network in representing these climatically stable areas, as well as areas of high suitability in the present or in the future only. We used an ensemble approach based on several methods for ecological niche modelling (ENMs) to obtain potential distributions 16 SDF’ species for past (last glacial maximum), present, and future (end of XXI century) climate scenarios. We then computed how many current Brazilian reserves matched both stable areas (suitable areas for all time periods), present and future geographical ranges alone for each species, in a multi-level gap analysis. We found range shifts due to climate changes for SDF’ species. Although the future geo- graphical range and stable areas for all analyzed species matched at least with one reserve, many protected areas will lose importance in protecting suitable areas for species in the future. Moreover, the current Brazilian reserves cover only a small amount of their climatically stable areas. However, some reserves will be suitable for many SDF’ species (90%) at the same time, but climatically stable for only half of them. Our findings show that vegetation community from SDFs may persist in Brazilian territories until the end of XXI century, and challenges about long-term conserva- tion of the SDFs may be partially reached with already existing Brazilian reserve network, however the reserves should be connected to permit habitat tracking.
Palavras-chave: Cerrado biome
Ecological niche modelling
Global climate change
Quaternaryclimatechange
Gap analysis
País: China
Instituição: Scientific Research Publishing
Unidade acadêmica: Instituto de Ciências Biológicas - ICB (RG)
Citação: COLLEVATTI, Rosane G.; RIBEIRO, Matheus Souza Lima; DINIZ FILHO, José Alexandre F.; OLIVEIRA, Guilherme; DOBROVOLSKI, Ricardo; TERRIBILE, Levi Carina. Stability of brazilian seasonally dry forests under climate change: inferences for long-term conservation. American Journal of Plant Sciences, Wuhan, v. 4, n. 4, p. 792-805, Apr. 2013.
Tipo de acesso: Acesso Aberto
Identificador do documento: 10.4236/ajps.2013.44098
Identificador do documento: 10.4236/ajps.2013.44098
URI: http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/handle/ri/11742
Data de publicação: Abr-2013
Aparece nas coleções:ICB - Artigos publicados em periódicos

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