Aplicação das Cadeias de Markov no estudo do controle biológico da planta aquática Eichhornia azurea
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Data
2015
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Resumo
The aquatic plants play an important role in the dams, because help in the water filtration by removing some heavy metals,
serving of fish food and shelter for some insects. However, some species are spreading and causing great inconvenience to the
local population, hydroelectrics and other individuals who depend on the lakes for survival. The purpose of this work was to
make an initial study of the biological control of the aquatic macrophyte Eichhornia azurea by inserting the insect predator
Thrypticus sp., using mathematical modeling and Markov chains of order 1. For that, a brief historical of the aquatic plant and
of the insect is presented, as well as concepts related to Markov chains and their applications in biomathematics are discussed,
supporting the realization of the modeling of the problem. Actual data obtained from a survey conducted by the author between
2002 and 2003, in the city of Coxim-MS, were incorporated in the modeling process. Simulations were performed for different
scenarios, assuming infestation by plant in interconnected dams and the results showed the amount of insects needed to control
in each cycle. The use of mathematical modeling and Markov chains allows the implementation of several tests. Nevertheless,
to achieve more accurate results in relation to biological control we intend, in future work, to use a predator-prey model and
analyze in more detail the problem, add more hypotheses, and to discuss aspects related to the predator population in environment
in question. The work is a result of the Professional Masters and was written with the intention that teachers and high school
students are being able understand the resolutions of the examples presented.
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Modelagem matemática, Cadeias de Markov, Matemática básica, Planta aquática, Controle biológico, Mathematical modeling, Markov chains, Basic math, Aquatic plant, Biological control
Citação
SILVEIRA JÚNIOR, Ademir Amaro da; SILVEIRA, Graciele Paraguaia. Aplicação das Cadeias de Markov no estudo do controle biológico da planta aquática Eichhornia azurea. Ciência e Natura, Santa Maria, v. 37, n. 3, 2015.