Prioridades espaciais para a conservação de mamíferos do Cerrado em um mundo em mudança
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Data
2012-03-28
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Universidade Federal de Goiás
Resumo
The human actions has triggered many threats to biodiversity like land-use and climate changes, overexploitation, pollution, and introduction of invasive species, which can affect organisms both at local and global scale. The science of spatial conservation prioritization emerged as a quantitative approach to support the spatial decisions in face of these threats, while minimizing the socioeconomic and political conflicts. Here we developed spatial solutions to the conservation of non-flying mammals from Brazilian Cerrado considering the socioeconomic costs and the opportunities of environmental governance (first objective). Further, we generated solutions to face the land-use and climate change taking into account the dispersal abilities of species and uncertainties in the species distribution modeling (SDM) process (second objective). We considered the current network of reserves of the Cerrado in both objectives. We built SDMs for 154 species combining model projections weighted by their statistical fit to produce consensus maps of species distribution grouped in three distinct types of models (envelope, statistical and machine-learning models), for both current future scenarios of climate (used only in the last aim). For the first goal, we used the current predicted distribution to run spatial prioritization analyses indicating the best sites for the conservation investment considering human population density, land cost, anthropogenic land use, level of environmental governance, and the distribution of species in trade-off analyses. For the second goal, we used both current and future predicted distribution to run optimization procedures and propose priority sites for conservation, while minimizing species climate-forced dispersal distance , the mean uncertainty associated to the SDM process, and taking into account the future changes in the landscape (by our land use model). SDMs indicated that species-rich sites converge to regions with high population density, high land cost, high anthropogenic land use, and with diverse levels of environmental governance. There was a significant change in spatial priorities when socioeconomic and political dimensions were included in analyses: top priority sites moved towards the north. This spatial change reduced by 68% the potential conservation conflicts with human population, by 72% the likely conflicts arising from land cost and by 68% anthropogenic land use. It also increased by 51% the beneficial effect of environmental governance. Including land-use changes and the modeling uncertainty in the conservation planning process changed significantly the spatial distribution of priority sites in the region. While the inclusion of land-use models altered the spatial location of priority sites at the regional scale, the effects of climate change tended to take place at the local scale. Note that, our solutions already include possible dispersal corridors linking current and future priority sites for mammal conservation, as well as a formal risk analysis based on planning uncertainties. Our results allowed dealing with both complex nature of conflicts among socioeconomic and political dimensions, and the dynamic problem imposed mainly by land-use and climate change. Thus, our analyses figure as a methodological prospect supporting the decision-make process and the consequent translation of conservation planning outcomes into conservations actions
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Palavras-chave
Conflitos de conservação , planejamento sistemático de conservação , priorização espacial para conservação , análise por múltiplos critérios , Zonation , Convenção da Diversidade Biológica , aquecimento global , modelos de distribuição de espécies , incertezas , Cerrado Brasileiro , mamíferos , Conservation conflicts , systematic conservation planning , multi-criteria analysis , Zonation , Convention on Biological Diversity , global warm-ing , species distribution models , uncertainties , Brazilian Cerrado , mammals
Citação
FALEIRO, Frederico Augusto Martins Valtuille. Spatial priorities for conservation of mammals from Cerrado in a change world. 2012. 95 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Ciências Biológicas - Biologia) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2012.