Mudanças climáticas e a conservação de aves e mamíferos na caatinga
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2015-04-28
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Universidade Federal de Goiás
Resumo
Among the various causes of biodiversity loss, the coming decades may be especially marked by climate change and the systematic conservation planning require encompass their effects. Arid and semi-arid regions may be more sensitive to climate change. This is the case of the Caatinga biome, a large Brazilian semi-arid region already threatened by fragmentation. Future projections of climate change suggest a likely transition from a semi-arid region to a region hosting semi desert and desert ecosystems. These factors make the Caatinga much more vulnerable in social, economic and environmental spheres. Through the ecological niche modeling, we estimated the potential distribution of birds and mammals throughout biome to the future. Subsequently, we quantified the loss or gain of species in protected areas in future. These groups are of broad economic use by the local population, and one of the main activities in this region. We considered several methods of modeling, climate models and carbon emission scenarios, however we summarized the results by
consensus approach between them. Although in general birds and mammals are losses, both along the Caatinga, as in protected areas, mammals are more vulnerable to climate change, with a loss of 34% in the biome, and the loss of birds was 10%. Of the 24 protected areas, two have severe losses of birds and mammals. However, these results are more aggravating when we disregard the ability of dispersal of species, in which case all protected areas tend to loss species. In addition to the loss of species, the replacement of species varied between groups and areas along the Caatinga and many of these locations may have the stability of its ecosystems as communities affected structures are modified with the loss of key species. The conservation or management of protected areas and the creation of new protected areas, can provide in a long term many benefits for biodiversity and local population, such as barriers against the desertification. Our studies can help to develop more
effective strategies and contributing with appropriate allocation of financial resources for
conservation policies.
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JONER, D. C. Mudanças climáticas e a conservação de aves e mamíferos na caatinga. 2015. 75 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Ecologia e Evolução) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2015.