Análise do binômio risco-retorno como ferramenta de apoio à tomada de decisão do investidor na integração lavoura-pecuária-floresta
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2018-03-24
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Universidade Federal de Goiás
Resumo
The agribusiness sector, which is responsible for a significant contribution to the Brazilian
trade balance surplus, presents some specificities such as the self-risk degree associated
with production. With this, it is evident the need for studies that aim to maximize the use
of physical and financial resources, so that the producer can obtain better economic
returns in the agricultural activity. Integrated production systems are an alternative for
producers, since by diversifying agricultural and livestock production in the same area
through rotation and consortium, they increase their chances of higher returns and
minimize the effect of possible losses related to crop failures. harvest, for example.
Secondary data, historical series of prices and production costs for each of the activities
studied were made available by the Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of the State of
Goiás (FAEG), Institute for the Strengthening of Agriculture in Goiás (IFAG) FUTURE
developed by the Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil (CNA) and National
Rural Apprenticeship Service (SENAR), in addition to other partners. The methodology
was applied in the application of linear programming in the light of Henry Markowitz's
Portfolio Theory to identify options on optimal combinations of resource allocation and
area in crop-livestock-forest integration (ILPF) projects. The data generated by the
application of the linear programming methodology led to the formation of 4 portfolios
referring to the 4 activities studied, which presented different combination options on
which proportion of areas and which proportion of resources to allocate to each activity.
Portfolio 4 was the one that presented the best cost-benefit ratio among those studied,
with an expected return of 1.54% at an associated risk of only 0.15%. This portfolio, made
up of eucalyptus and cattle breeding, presented the following proportion in the distribution,
respectively, of 85% and 15% (areas) and 91% and 9% (resources). Therefore, we can
infer that the tool of linear programming through the application of the theory of Portfolio
can be adopted when studying integration projects and must be adapted to each type and
profile of project and investor.
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MARQUES, E. O. Análise do binômio risco-retorno como ferramenta de apoio à tomada de decisão do investidor na integração lavoura-pecuária-floresta. 2018. 66 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Agronegócio) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2018.