Use este identificador para citar ou linkar para este item: http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/handle/ri/11014
Tipo do documento: Artigo
Título: Areas of climate stability of species ranges in the brazilian cerrado: disentangling uncertainties through time
Autor: Terribile, Levi Carina
Lima-Ribeiro, Matheus Souza
Araújo, Miguel Bastos
Bizão, Nair
Collevatt, Rosane Garcia
Dobrovolski, Ricardo
Franco, Amanda Assis
Guilhaumon, François
Lima, Jacqueline de Souza
Murakami, Devanir Mitsuyuki
Nabout, João Carlos
Oliveira, Guilherme de
Oliveira, Leciane Karita de
Rabelo, Suelen Gonçalves
Rangel, Thiago Fernando
Simon, Lorena Mendes
Soares, Thannya Nascimento
Telles, Mariana Pires de Campos
Diniz Filho, José Alexandre Felizola
Abstract: Recognizing the location of climatically stable areas in the future is subjected to uncertainties from ecological niche models, climatic models, variation in species ranges responses, and from the climatic variation through time. Here, we proposed an approach based on hierarchical ANOVA to reduce uncertainties and to identify climatically stable areas, working with Cerrado tree species as a model organism. Ecological niche models were generated for 18 Cerrado tree species and their potential distributions were projected into past and future. Analyses of the sources of uncertainties in ensembles hindcasts/forecasts revealed that the time component was the most important source of variation, whereas the climatic models had the smallest effect. The species responses to climate changes do not showed marked differences within each time period. By comparing past and future predictions, a single continuous climatically stable area was identified, which should be considered as a potential improvement for spatial prioritization for conservation.
Palavras-chave: Climate change
Climatically stable areas
Ensemble forecasting
Ecological niche models
Systematic conservation planning
País: brasil
Programa: Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Evolução
Citação: TERRIBILE, Levi Carina; LIMA-RIBEIRO, Matheus de Souza; ARAÚJO, Miguel Bastos; BIZÃO, Nair; COLLEVATTI, Rosane Garcia; DOBROVOLSKI, Ricardo; FRANCO, Amanda Assis; GUILHAUMON, François; LIMA, Jacqueline de S.; MURAKAMI, D. M.; NABOUT, João Carlos; OLIVEIRA, G. ; OLIVEIRA, Leciane K.; RABELO, Suelen G.; RANGEL, Thiago Fernando; SIMON, L. M.; SOARES, T. N.; TELLES, M. P. C.; DINIZ-FILHO, José Alexandre F. Areas of climate stability of species ranges in the Brazilian Cerrado: disentangling uncertainties through time. Natureza & Conservação, v. 10, p. 152-159, 2012. Disponível em: < http://doi.editoracubo.com.br/10.4322/natcon.2012.025>.
Tipo de acesso: Acesso Aberto
Identificador do documento: 10.4322/natcon.2012.025
Identificador do documento: 10.4322/natcon.2012.025
URI: http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/handle/ri/11014
Data de publicação: Nov-2012
Aparece nas coleções:ICB - Artigos publicados em periódicos

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