Biogeografia da conservação frente à expansão agrícola: conflitos e prioridades
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Data
2012-04-10
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Universidade Federal de Goiás
Resumo
Agriculture is the human activity with the greatest impact on the environment.
Specifically, it represents the greatest threat to biodiversity. In the future, this activity
should expand due to population growth, increased consumption and production of
biofuels from food. To understand the possible impacts of this expansion on biodiversity,
we used scenarios of land use change between 1970 and 2100 from IMAGE (Integrated
Model to Access Global Environment) to test the following hypotheses: (i) areas
considered as global priorities for conservation by international NGOs will be
preferentially impacted by agricultural expansion in the XXI century, (ii) there is a conflict
between the priority areas for carnivores conservation and agricultural expansion, and this
conflict can be reduced by incorporating information on agricultural expansion in the
prioritization process, (iii) the integration among countries for conservation planning may
benefit both biodiversity and agricultural productivity, (iv) Brazilian protected areas will be
impacted by agricultural expansion in the future and this impact will differ between
protected areas of integral protection and those of sustainable use. We found that: (i) the
impact on priority areas for conservation depends on the criteria by which they were set, so
that areas defined by its high vulnerability are currently most affected than those of low
vulnerability. Throughout the XXI century this impact is expected to increase, although the
difference between the two types of priorities remains, except for High Biodiversity
Wilderness Areas, defined by their low vulnerability in current time, but for which most
pessimistic scenarios forecast an impact similar to priority areas of high vulnerability, (ii)
there is a high spatial congruence between areas with high agricultural use in the future and
priority areas for conservation of carnivores. This conflict can be reduced if the
prioritization process include information on agricultural expansion; this incorporation,
however, causes a profound change in the distribution of priority areas and reduces the
number of protected carnivore populations, (iii) the integration of countries to create a set
of priority areas for conservation that represents 17% of the land surface can protect 19%
more mammal populations without reducing food production, compared to a strategy in which each country seeks to protect its territory independently, and (iv) the impact of
agriculture in Brazil is expected to increase until the end of the century, threatening even
the protected areas and their surroundings. This impact, however, should not be different
between areas of sustainable use and those of integral protection. We conclude that
agricultural expansion should remain a major threat to biodiversity in the future, even in
areas of special interest for conservation. Conservation actions should be planned taking
into account this threat in order to reduce their potential impacts. For this, countries like
Brazil should strengthen its surveillance on agricultural expansion and on how this activity
is developed. Furthermore, the integration of international conservation efforts should be
pursued, given its benefits for biodiversity and food production. Finally, humanity must
choose methods of agricultural production that reduce its impacts, including avoiding its
future expansion, so as to meet the increasing needs of a human population globally.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Agricultura , Mudança de uso e cobertura do solo , IMAGE , Conservação
da Biodiversidade , Planejamento Sistemático de Conservação , Prioridades Globais de
Conservação da Biodiversidade , Hot spots de Biodiversidade , Áreas Protegidas , Conservação
de Mamíferos , Brasil , Agriculture , Land Use And Land Cover Change , IMAGE , Biodiversity Conservation , Systematic Conservation Planning , Global Biodiversity Conservation Priorities , Biodiversity Hotspots , Protected Areas , Mammals Conservation , Brazil
Citação
DOBROVOLSKI, Ricardo. Conservation Biogeography faced with agricultural expansion: conflicts and priorities. 2012. 99 f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciencias Biologicas) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2012.