Análise de tendência da mortalidade prematura por doenças crônicas não transmissíveis nas unidades federadas - Brasil 2000 a 2011

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Universidade Federal de Goiás


Chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have the highest mortality rate worldwide, with an increase in middle-income and low-income countries. The main groups are circulatory diseases (CAD), chronic respiratory diseases (CRD), cancer and diabetes. In Brazil, the first two groups are showing a decrease trend in the last decade and the others remain stable. The strategic action plan for dealing with chronic non-communicable diseases in Brazil, from 2011-2022, sets a target to reduce premature mortality by 2% per year until 2022. Therefore the purpose of this article is to identify the trend in mortality rates and the scenarios of meeting the goals for reducing premature mortality rates by 2% per year by the states. It was performed a time series analysis of the standardized mortality rates for NCDs, corrected for underreporting deaths and ill defined causes of death in each of the four causes groups in the period from 2000 to 2011 in males and females. The autoregressive linear regression of the Prais-Winsten was the model of choice. There were estimated the average annual increment rates of mortality and the confidence intervals in 95%. The states was defined with favorable and unfavorable scenarios for achieving the goal of the plan from the states that showed significant average annual of increment rate of reduction (p <0.05) and upper limit of 95% CI <= -2.0%. For the CAD group, both genders, the states have showed that a favorable scenario were: Distrito Federal, Santa Catarina, Mato Grosso, Rio Grande do Sul, Minas Gerais, Bahia, Espírito Santo, and Paraná. For the DRC group the states were Amazonas, Distrito Federal, e Paraná. For groups of cancer and Diabetes Mellitus all the states had unfavorable scenarios upper limit of 95% of the annual average increment rate greater than two. The conclusion was that the states, with the support of the Ministry of Health in conjunction with other Federal Agencies, together with state and municipal governments should strengthen interventions focused on modifiable risk factors for NCDs and ensure comprehensive integrated care to diagnosed users to reduce premature mortality in the four groups of causes.



ALVES, C. G. Análise de tendência da mortalidade prematura por doenças crônicas não transmissíveis nas unidades federadas - Brasil 2000 a 2011. 2014. 83 f. Dissertação (Mestrado Profissional em Saúde Coletiva) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2014.