Sistema antecipatório de prevenção de excursão de pista

Abstract

A crisis, in general, can be defined as a sudden change or a major change in the state of a system in relation to its considered normal or desired state. Crisis Management has a set of activities that collaborate in the decisions and actions taken in the stages: previous, present and later of a crisis. This set is composed of activities of prevention, mitigation, preparation, response and recovery. In Civil Aviation, a problem that affects runway safety is the Runway Excursion, which according to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), was one of the most frequent accident and incident records from 2008 to 2018. This work presents a model for preventing events that can generate a overrun. From the modeling, the Sistema Antecipatório de Prevenção de Excursão de Pista (SAPEP) was proposed. SAPEP will be able to anticipate, on a landing, a possible overrun of the final boundaries of the runway, generating warnings. The work also extended the possibilities of SAPEP by adding the Response Surface Methodology, allowing strategies and instructions to be generated in order to avoid imminent crisis situations. The approach used in this work for the Runway Excursion can also be applied to other types of critical events.