Análise de intervenção da política de garantia de preços mínimos sobre as séries de preços do milho no estado do Mato Grosso de 2009 a 2016
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2018-02-19
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Universidade Federal de Goiás
Resumo
An important characteristic of agricultural production is the volatility of the prices of its products,
caused by excess supply in the harvest period and shortage in the off-season, in addition to other
factors intrinsic to the activity. Despite the complexity ofthe real economy, specific methodologies
are used to verify the effects of public policies that aim to stabilize agribusiness prices. In Brazil,
has been history the Minimum Price Guarantee Policy, which since 1943 aims to guarantee
minimum income for rural producers. The objective of this work is to collect specialized literature
on the subject and to verify which methodology is most appropriate to measure the effects ofthe
PGPM on agricultura 1 prices, then to use the same methodology to verify the effects ofthe PGPM
on maize prices in the State of Mato Grosso, which is the largest Brazilian producer of this
important grain. The hypothesis is that the PGPM would have positive and significant effects on
prices, however, through the identification and use of the most appropriate model presented in the
literature, which were the Models of Intervention Analysis in Time Series, the results indicated that
Interventions (PGPM) on prices did not represent a positive and significant homogeneous effect,
creating evidence that in Mato Grosso, from 2005 to 2016, other market variables explain the price
changes in addition to these PGPM instruments.
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ABREU, D. P. Análise de intervenção da política de garantia de preços mínimos sobre as séries de preços do milho no estado do Mato Grosso de 2009 a 2016. 2018. 85 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Agronegócio) - Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, 2018.