Os domínios do Cerrado no tempo-profundo: 30 milhões de anos de um bioma silenciado

Abstract

The Cerrado, the second largest biome in South America, is recognized for its high endemic diversity and an evolutionary history marked by intense climatic and geological changes. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of the Cerrado's distribution over the last 30 million years, seeking to understand how paleoclimatic events and landscape changes shaped its configuration. Projections from distribution models based on machine learning (Gradient Boosting Machine – GBM), integrating paleoclimatic and geological data, were used to test the Historical Climate Stability hypothesis, which suggests the persistence of a stable environmental core over time. The results indicated high stability in central regions of South America. The environmental variables used, especially temperature and precipitation, were determinants of the Cerrado's environmental distribution, while factors such as elevation and drainage acted as limiting factors. The integrated analysis of spatiotemporal patterns provided evidence of the region's environmental resilience. The findings provide important insights for conservation strategies based on historical analysis, highlighting the role of the Cerrado as an ecologically dynamic, biogeographically structured system that is still relatively unexplored in terms of scientific research.