How climate change may affect the seasonal and spatial patterns of acoustic activity in a neotropical tree frog?

Abstract

We investigated the climatic niche associated with the acoustic activity of the Neotropical tree frog Scinax fuscomarginatus (Lutz, 1925) to evaluate the long-term effects of climate change on this behavior, considering both its seasonal and spatial distribution. To do so, we employed passive acoustic monitoring and Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM), integrating frog occurrence records with climatic variables in a GIS framework. The current distribution of the species was modeled and projected under future climate scenarios using four presence-only modeling techniques. Acoustic activity was further modeled using a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM), relating calling behavior to ambient temperature based on field-collected data. Long-term projections of climate change effects on the calling activity of S. fuscomarginatus were made by comparing temperature conditions from the early (2000–2010) and late (2090–2100) 21st century. ENM results suggest that the species’ potential geographic distribution will contract due to climatic shifts, reducing areas with favorable conditions for acoustic activity. As a result, the seasonal and daily calling patterns of S. fuscomarginatus males are expected to be significantly altered, with likely consequences for the species’ reproductive success, demographic stability, and long-term population persistence.