Severe loss of suitable climatic conditions for marsupial species in Brazil: challenges and opportunities for conservation

Abstract

A wide range of evidences indicate climate change as one the greatest threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. The impacts of these changes, which may have already resulted in several recent species extinction, are species-specific and produce shifts in species phenology, ecological interactions, and geographical distributions. Here we used cutting-edge methods of species distribution models combining thousands of model projections to generate a complete and comprehensive ensemble of forecasts that shows the likely impacts of climate change in the distribution of all 55 marsupial species that occur in Brazil. Consensus projections forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in the southeast of Brazil, both for the current time and for 2050. Most species had a significant range contraction and lost climate space. Turnover rates were relatively high, but vary across the country. We also mapped sites retaining climatic suitability. They can be found in all Brazilian biomes, especially in the pampas region, in the southern part of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, in the north of the Cerrado and Caatinga, and in the northwest of the Amazon. Our results provide a general overview on the likely effects of global climate change on the distribution of marsupials in the country as well as in the patterns of species richness and turnover found in regional marsupial assemblages.