Direcionalidade em missões de transição energética sob restrições de orçamento impositivo

Abstract

This article develops a theoretical model of fiscal directionalism in missionoriented policies applied to the energy transition. It argues that the transformative capacity of the state depends not only on the scale of green spending but also on the geometric coherence of the policy mix over time. By modeling budget execution as a vector subject to compositional dispersion, the paper shows that mandatory budget regimes may increase directional fragmentation, reducing strategic alignment even under expanding resources. Applied to the Brazilian case and to Mission 5 of the NIB, the model reveals a paradox: higher spending may coexist with a reduced capacity to stabilize dominant technological trajectories.