Impacto da pandemia de covid-19 na arrecadação tributária no Brasil

Abstract

As a consequence of the widespread dissemination of the Covid-19 pandemic, various social isolation measures were implemented by governments worldwide. Such measures had expressive negative impacts on the economy, causing a significant decline in economic activities across different sectors. As a result, a reduction in the collection of tax revenues was observed, which led to financial difficulties in several Brazilian states. The main objective of this research was to examine and evaluate the behavior of the collection of the main federal taxes and the ICMS (State Value-Added Tax on Goods and Services) during the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods (2018 to 2023). The adopted methodology was based on descriptive statistical analysis, using data extracted from the Federal Government’s Revenue Collection Portal, complemented by the application of the non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test, with the aim of verifying significant variations in collection over the analyzed period. The results revealed a substantial drop in the collection of certain taxes during the first months of the pandemic, followed by a sharp increase starting in August 2020. In the subsequent years (2022 and 2023), a resumption of economic growth, and consequently, of tax revenue collection, was observed. The application of the Kruskal-Wallis test demonstrated that the ICMS, as well as the main federal taxes—IRPJ (Corporate Income Tax), IRRF (Withholding Income Tax), CSLL (Social Contribution on Net Income), PIS (Social Integration Program) and COFINS (Contribution for the Financing of Social Security)—presented statistically significant variations in revenue collection throughout the investigated period.