Are temperature suitability and socioeconomic factors reliable predictors of dengue transmission in Brazil?
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2021-11
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Dengue is an ongoing problem, especially in tropical countries. Like many other vectorborne
diseases, the spread of dengue is driven by a myriad of climate and socioeconomic
factors. Within developing countries, heterogeneities on socioeconomic factors are
expected to create variable conditions for dengue transmission. However, the relative
role of socioeconomic characteristics and their association with climate in determining
dengue prevalence are poorly understood. Here we assembled essential socioeconomic
factors over 5570 municipalities across Brazil and assessed their effect on dengue
prevalence jointly with a previously predicted temperature suitability for transmission.
Using a simultaneous autoregressive approach (SAR), we showed that the variability in the
prevalence of dengue cases across Brazil is primarily explained by the combined effect of
climate and socioeconomic factors. At some dengue seasons, the effect of temperature
on transmission potential showed to be a more significant proxy of dengue cases. Still,
socioeconomic factors explained the later increase in dengue prevalence over Brazil. In a
heterogeneous country such as Brazil, recognizing the transmission drivers by vectors is a
fundamental issue in effectively predicting and combating tropical diseases like dengue.
Ultimately, it indicates that not considering socioeconomic factors in disease transmission
predictions might compromise efficient surveillance strategies. Our study shows that
sanitation, urbanization, and GDP are regional indicators that should be considered along
with temperature suitability on dengue transmission, setting effective directions to
mosquito-borne disease control.
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Dengue, Mosquito transmission, Temperature suitability, Vector-borne disease, Socioeconomic drivers
Citação
SIMON, Lorena M.; RANGEL, Thiago F. Are temperature suitability and socioeconomic factors reliable predictors of dengue transmission in Brazil? Frontiers in Tropical Diseases, Lausanne, v. 2, p. 1-8, Nov. 2021. DOI: 10.3389/fitd.2021.758393. Disponível em: file:///C:/Users/Usu%C3%A1rio/Downloads/fitd-02-758393.pdf. Acesso em: 27 mar. 2023.