Climate change will drive mammal species loss and biotic homogenization in the Cerrado biodiversity hotspot

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change has been shown to be one of the most pervasive threats to biodiversity.However, few studies have considered its effects on whole communities. Here, using ecological nichemodels (ENM) and projected future climate scenarios, we analyzed how these environmental changescould promote reductions in the alpha and beta taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversities ofmammals in the Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot. We found that, on average, species richness tends todecrease in most Cerrado areas under future climate scenarios. However, this pattern is not uniformthroughout the biome. Overall, southern Brazilian Cerrado may become biotically homogenized – throughthe extinction of native specialists and expansion of exotic generalists – in the near future, while the rest ofbiome may become very heterogeneous in taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional aspects. This scenariois very problematic considering that this region has been highly transformed and fragmented by humanactivities in the past. Based on our ENM approach of species inhabiting present Cerrado, we provided amore accurate analysis about the effects of anthropogenic and/or natural processes at large scales on thecommunities for this endangered Biodiversity Hotspot. This information could represent invaluable toolto guide future establishment of new and efficient conservation efforts.