Two sides of a coin: effects of climate change on the native and non-native distribution of Colossoma macropomum in South America
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2017-06
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Climate change and species invasions interact in nature, disrupting biological communities.
Based on this knowledge, we simultaneously assessed the effects of climate change on the
native distribution of the Amazonian fish Colossoma macropomum as well as on its invasiveness
across river basins of South America, using ecological niche modeling. We used
six niche models within the ensemble forecast context to predict the geographical distribution
of C. macropomum for the present time, 2050 and 2080. Given that this species has
been continuously introduced into non-native South American basins by fish farming activities,
we added the locations of C. macropomum farms into the modeling process to obtain a
more realistic scenario of its invasive potential. Based on modelling outputs we mapped climate
refuge areas at different times. Our results showed that a plenty of climatically suitable
areas for the occurrence of C. macropomum occurrence are located outside the original
basins at the present time and that its invasive potential is greatly amplified by fish farms.
Simulations of future geographic ranges revealed drastic range contraction in the native
region, implying concerns not only with respect to the species conservation but also from a
socio-economic perspective since the species is a cornerstone of artisanal and commercial
fisheries in the Amazon. Although the invasive potential is projected to decrease in the face
of climate change, climate refugia will concentrate in Parana River, Southeast Atlantic and
East Atlantic basins, putting intense, negative pressures on the native fish fauna these
regions. Our findings show that short and long-term management actions are required for: i)
the conservation of natural stocks of C. macropomum in the Amazon, and ii) protecting
native fish fauna in the climate refuges of the invaded regions.
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LOPES, Taise M. et al. Two sides of a coin: effects of climate change on the native and non-native distribution of Colossoma macropomum in South America. PLoS One, San Francisco, v. 12, n. 6, e0179684, June 2017.