Fossil record improves biodiversity risk assessment under future climate change scenarios
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2017-07
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Aim: Conservationists have been using ecological niche modelling (ENM) to understand
how climate change impacts species, estimate their extinction risk and assess
species conservation status in the future. However, most ENMs are built using just
current species occurrences. As short-term
observations are naturally biased and incomplete
in both geographical and climate spaces, palaeontologists have recommended
the use of fossil data to improve species vulnerability assessments. Here, we
used a time structured data set of the jaguar Panthera onca (Linnaeus, 1758) to test the
implications of fossil data on distinct distribution dynamics and conservation status
predicted by ENMs under future climate change scenarios.
Location: The New World.
Methods: We built two classes of ENMs, (i) using only current occurrences of P. onca
and (ii) combining current and fossil information. Models were then projected onto
current and future climates.
Results: Niche models calibrated using fossil data broadly predicted more optimistic
conservation statuses, with larger suitable areas for the species in the future, which
are geographically nearest to its current distribution and better represented within
protected areas (current network of protected areas will hold significant suitable
areas).
Main conclusions: Fossils provided complementary information about different climate
conditions that species experienced though time and filled empty spaces in currently
unoccupied fundamental niche. Our analyses reinforce the idea the fossil record
is a valuable source of alternative information to increase the reliability of ENMs when
assessing biodiversity risk. Combining ecological and palaeontological data for niche
modelling increase our understanding about species responses to changing climates.
Consequently, it potentially improves our knowledge on how to manage biodiversity
by more reliably anticipating the effects of climate change and proactively—rather
than reactively—planning conservation actions over longer periods going forward.
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Conservation palaeobiology, Protected area effectiveness, Ecological niche modelling, Multitemporal calibration, Extinction risk, Jaguar (Panthera onca), Habitat tracking
Citação
LIMA-RIBEIRO, Matheus S. et al. Fossil record improves biodiversity risk assessment under future climate change scenarios. Diversity and distributions, New York, v. 23, n. 8, p. 922-933, July 2017.