The potential effects of climate change on medicinal plants from the Brazilian Cerrado in South America

Abstract

Biodiversity is facing unprecedented threats from climate change and anthropogenic pressures, with potential losses of species across both terrestrial and marine ecosystems. This study examines the impacts of climate change on medicinal plants in the Brazilian Cerrado, a threatened biodiversity hotspot. We projected future distributions of medicinal plants under three climate scenarios, employing eight atmosphere−ocean circulation models, using species distribution models (SDMs). Our analysis reveals alarming trends: medicinal plant species may lose 50–64% of their suitable habitats in Brazil by 2060, with some facing potential extinction. Range centroids shifted significantly toward warm regions, particularly the Amazon, indicating climate-driven migration patterns. While these projections identify potential refugia, they do not confirm ecological adaptation capacity, as they are based on current niche extrapolations. The findings highlight climate change as a critical threat to the medicinal flora from the Cerrado, with cascading impacts on ecosystems and traditional medicine. The emerging role of the Amazon as a potential climatic refuge for Cerrado species underscores the need for cross-biome conservation strategies. These results demand urgent action to (1) establish protected areas in predicted refugia, (2) develop assisted migration protocols for critically endangered species, and (3) implement integrated conservation policies across South American biomes. Our study provides critical data for prioritizing conservation efforts in vulnerable regions, emphasizing the interconnected fate of Cerrado and Amazon ecosystems under climate change. The projected losses underscore the immediate need for policy interventions to safeguard medicinal plant biodiversity and associated ecological services.