A influência do Mercosul no desempenho econômico do centro-oeste brasileiro (2010-2023)

Abstract

This work focused on analyzing the influence of Mercosur on the economic performance of Brazil's Central-West region, covering the period from 2010 to 2023. The main objective was to examine how the bloc's intergovernmental cooperation translates into economic benefits for this region, enabling its strategic insertion into intra-regional trade, with the recognition that Brazilian regions respond heterogeneously to the bloc's dynamics. The methodology utilized adopted the concept of "economic performance" as an intermediate category between growth and development, being measured by a series of quantitative indicators, such as Gross Domes-tic Product (GDP), GDP per capita, the Central Bank Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br and IBCR-CO) and, above all, the Central-West's export and import flows (FOB) with the bloc, together with the analysis of the trade agenda. Through empirical analysis, the macroeconomic fact was confirmed that the Central-West region experienced a positive decoupling from the Brazilian average, demonstrating greater resilience and growth during national economic cri-ses. Despite the notable dynamism, it was concluded that this economic performance was not structurally driven by the regional bloc. The results demonstrate that the bloc has only a timid structural relevance to the region's trade, with its participation in the Central-West's exports and imports being marginal compared to its role in total Brazilian trade. A central criticism is raised that there is a mismatch between the Central-West's agro-export productive vocation and Mercosur's normative structure, which prioritizes the integration of industrial chains along the Brazil-Argentina axis, thereby imposing limitations on the dominant regional trade agenda.