Como a interação planta-solo pode ameaçar a interação planta-abelha sob as mudanças climáticas ?

Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyze how climate change may disrupt the existing ecological interactions between the plant species Vochysia rufa and its pollinators. Additionally, the study aims to assess the effectiveness of Protected Areas (Conservation Units) in safeguarding these species in the face of land-use changes. The methodology is based on the analysis of species distribution data, which were collected from Google Scholar and Web of Science, and matched with current climate data from WorldClim and future climate data comparing scenarios of high and low environmental governance. For the plant model, soil data from SoilGrids were also included. All variable modeling was performed in RStudio using the ENMTML package. The overlapping area between the distributions of the plant and its pollinators was assessed in relation to their presence within Protected Areas, allowing the evaluation of whether the current protected area system is capable of ensuring the future conservation of these species. It is expected that there will be a mismatch between the distributions of Vochysia and its pollinators, as climate change progresses, pollinators may shift to more suitable areas, while the plants may not, especially considering the limitations imposed by soil. Moreover, it is expected that under scenarios of higher governance, there will be less distributional loss. In addition, Protected Areas are expected to protect both species, as they both currently have a wide geographical distribution.