A dark scenario for Cerrado plant species: effects of future climate, land use and protected areas ineffectiveness
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2019
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Aim: The anthropogenic climate change and land use change are considered two of
the main factors that are altering biodiversity at the global scale. An evaluation that
combined both factors can be relevant to detect which species could be the most
vulnerable and reveal the regions of highest stability or susceptibility to biodiversity.
We aimed to: (a) assess the effect of climate change and land use on the distribution
of Cerrado plant species for different countries where they occur, (b) evaluate the
effectiveness of the current network of protected areas (PAs) to safeguards species
under different greenhouse–gas (GHG) emissions and land use scenarios, and (c) estimate
the vulnerability of species based on protection effectiveness and habitat
loss.
Location: Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay.
Methods: We modelled the distribution of 1,553 plant species of Cerrado and evaluated
species range loss caused by present and future land use and two GHG for 2050
and 2080. We assessed species vulnerability combining the representativeness of
species within conservation units with the loss of species’ ranges outside PAs.
Results: We found that climate change and land use will cause great damage to
Cerrado flora by 2050 and 2080, even under optimistic conditions. The greatest impacts
of land use will occur in the regions where the greatest richness will be harboured.
The conservation of the species will be seriously affected since the PA
network is not as effective in safeguarding them under current or future conditions.
Main conclusions: The low level of protection together with the losses caused by the
advance of agricultural lands will lead most species being highly vulnerable. Due to
the distinct impacts of climate and land use over the three countries, conservation
strategies should be implemented at transboundary and national levels.
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Neotropical savannas, Vulnerability, Protected areas network, Species distribution models
Citação
VELAZCO, Santiago José Elías; VILLALOBOS, Fabricio; GALVÃO, Franklin; MARCO JÚNIOR, Paulo De. A dark scenario for Cerrado plant species: effects of future climate, land use and protected areas ineffectiveness. Diversity and Distributions, Oxford, v. 25, n. 4, p. 660-673, 2019. DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12886. Disponível em: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12886. Acesso em: 10 fev. 2023.