Os preditores da desigualdade socioterritorial no estado de Goiás, Brasil

Abstract

This article analyzes the predictors of socio-territorial inequality in the state of Goiás, Brazil, with an emphasis on the influence of the primary agribusiness sector on municipal development levels. To this end, 37 socioeconomic and territorial variables from the years 2021 and 2022 were used. The adopted methodology combines statistical models (Ordinary Least Squares – OLS) and machine learning algorithms (Random Forest and XGBoost). The OLS model was employed to examine statistical relationships between socioeconomic variables, while the Random Forest and XGBoost algorithms were used to assess the importance of these variables in predicting the Municipal Development Index (MDI). The analysis considered indicators such as health infrastructure, access to sanitation, literacy levels, and economic inclusion. The results indicate that variables such as employment, hospital bed availability, and basic sanitation have a strong impact on socio-territorial inequality, demonstrating that a lack of access to essential services is directly associated with low development levels. Furthermore, the research reveals that although agribusiness drives economic growth at the state level, it also contributes to the deepening of socio-territorial inequalities by concentrating wealth in specific municipalities. These findings highlight the need for public policies that promote more equitable development.