Global expansion of COVID-19 pandemic is driven by population size and airport connections
Nenhuma Miniatura disponível
Data
2020
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Editor
Resumo
The pandemic state of COVID-19 caused by the SARS CoV-2 put the world in
quarantine, led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and is causing an unprecedented
economic crisis. However, COVID-19 is spreading in different rates at different
countries. Here, we tested the effect of three classes of predictors, i.e., socioeconomic,
climatic and transport, on the rate of daily increase of COVID-19 on its exponential
phase. We found that population size and global connections, represented by countries'
importance in the global air transportation network, are the main explanations for the
early growth rate of COVID-19 in different countries. Climate and socioeconomics
had no significant effect in this big picture analysis. Our results indicate that the current
claims that the growth rate of COVID-19 may be lower in warmer and humid countries
should be taken very carefully, risking to disturb well-established and effective policy
of social isolation that may help to avoid higher mortality rates due to the collapse of
national health systems.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
COVID-19, SARS CoV-2, Exponential growth rates, Network centrality, Spatial analysis, Socioeconomics
Citação
COELHO, Marco Tulio Pacheco et al. Global expansion of COVID-19 pandemic is driven by population size and airport connections. Peer J, San Diego, v. 8, p. e9708, 2020.