The reduced effectiveness of protected areas under climate change threatens atlantic forest tiger moths
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Data
2014-09-17
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Brock Fenton, University of Western Ontario
Resumo
Climate change leads to species’ range shifts, which may end up reducing the effectiveness of protected areas. These
deleterious changes in biodiversity may become amplified if they include functionally important species, such as herbivores
or pollinators. We evaluated how effective protected areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest are in maintaining the diversity of
tiger moths (Arctiinae) under climate change. Specifically, we assessed whether protected areas will gain or lose species
under climate change and mapped their locations in the Atlantic Forest, in order to assess potential spatial patterns of
protected areas that will gain or lose species richness. Comparisons were completed using modeled species occurrence data
based on the current and projected climate in 2080. We also built a null model for random allocation of protected areas to
identify where reductions in species richness will be more severe than expected. We employed several modern techniques
for modeling species’ distributions and summarized results using ensembles of models. Our models indicate areas of high
species richness in the central and southern regions of the Atlantic Forest both for now and the future. However, we
estimate that in 2080 these regions should become climatically unsuitable, decreasing the species’ distribution area. Around
4% of species were predicted to become extinct, some of them being endemic to the biome. Estimates of species turnover
from current to future climate tended to be high, but these findings are dependent on modeling methods. Our most
important results show that only a few protected areas in the southern region of the biome would gain species. Protected
areas in semideciduous forests in the western region of the biome would lose more species than expected by the null
model employed. Hence, current protected areas are worse off, than just randomly selected areas, at protecting species in
the future.
Descrição
v. 9, p. e107792, 2014.
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Citação
FERRO, Viviane G.; LEMES, Priscila; MELO, Adriano S.; LOYOLA, Rafael. The reduced effectiveness of protected areas under climate change threatens atlantic forest tiger moths. Plos One, v. 9, p. e107792, 2014. Disponível em: <http://www.plosone.org/article/fetchObject.action?uri=info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0107792&representation=PDF>.