Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon
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2017
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Background
Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several
methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different
approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical
scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the
expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scaleÐpatterns of species richness
and species vulnerability to climate changeÐare affected by the inputs used to model
and project species distribution.
Methods
We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals),
all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known
to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2)
modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated
uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered
factors.
Results
The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted
with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area
were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All
models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for
amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on
endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all
models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall
species richness losses.Conclusions
From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for
assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns
are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source
of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also
essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a
conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to
climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal
movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia
for migrating species.
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SALES, Lilian Patrícia; NEVES, Olívia Viana; MARCO, Paulo De; LOYOLA, Rafael. Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon. PLoS One, San Francisco, v. 12, n. 10, e0183785, 2017. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0183785. Disponível em: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0183785. Acesso em: 6 fev. 2023.