Predicting impacts of global climatic change on genetic and phylogeographical diversity of a neotropical treefrog
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2021
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Aim: Future climate changes may affect species distribution and their genetic diversity,
hampering species adaptation to a new climate or tracking the suitable conditions.
Amphibians have high sensitivity to environmental degradation and changes
in temperature and humidity. Thus, the expected climatic changes by the end-of-
century
(EOC 2100) may cause local or complete extinction of some species. Here,
we address the effects of climate change on genetic and phylogeographical diversity,
together with the geographical distribution of the South American treefrog Scinax
squalirostris Lutz, 1925. Furthermore, we assess how protected areas will conserve
its genetic variation.
Location: South America.
Methods: We combined Ecological Niche Modelling and genetic simulations to predict
the effects of climate change on the geographical distribution, genetic diversity,
structure and phylogeographical diversity of Scinax squalirostris, using two scenarios
of CO2 emission. We also performed a spatial analysis to investigate the effectiveness
of the current Protected Areas (PAs) to preserve the species’ genetic and phylogeographical
diversity.
Results: Scinax squalirostris' geographical range will potentially increase in the future
due to the expansion of suitable areas towards its southern distribution, despite the
shrinking of suitable areas in the northern part of its current distribution. Besides
the shifts in suitable areas, our findings point to a genetic homogenization across
the geographical range of S. squalirostris due to the displacement and loss of genetic
ancestry clusters. Although existing PAs are conserving the current genetic diversity,
they conserve less phylogeographical diversity than expected by chance. Scinax
squalirostris may shift its distribution into areas with lower number of PAs, compromising
its future conservation.
Main conclusions: Climate change will potentially increase S. squalirostris range size,
however, not towards regions where most of the current established PAs are located,
hence driving to homogenization and loss of genetic diversity, and leading to a gap of
conservation within PAs.
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Bayesian clustering, Hylidae, Conservation, Global warming, Ecological Niche Modellings, Phylogenetic diversity
Citação
ABREU-JARDIM, Tatianne P. F.; JARDIM, Lucas; BALLESTEROS-MEIJA, Liliana; MACIEL, Natan M.; COLLEVATTI, Rosane G. Predicting impacts of global climatic change on genetic and phylogeographical diversity of a Neotropical treefrog. Diversity and Distributions, Oxford, v. 27, n. 8, p. 1519–1535, 2021. DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13299. Disponível em: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ddi.13299. Acesso em: 2 fev. 2023.