Projected impacts of climate change on ecosystem services provided by terrestrial mammals in Brazil

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES). In this study, we evaluated the climate change risk to 11 ES provided by Brazilian terrestrial mammals by mapping their potential distribution using ecological niche modeling. We assessed risk by estimating species richness (for each ES) and ES richness (for ES overlapped) under current and future conditions. Although most of the species are projected to experience distribution contractions, overall, the individual ES and their overlap are expected to be less at risk from climate change (i.e., gain in redundancy of providers or area of supply). The Amazon emerges as a hotspot for ES supply by mammals, showing the greatest redundancy and, in some cases, expansion of ES supply. Because ES are benefits to people, and the Amazon is the least populated region in Brazil, this surplus might not translate into actual service. Conversely, the densely populated Atlantic Forest, and the agriculturally productive southern of Cerrado, and Pantanal are expected to lose ES in the future. We emphasize the importance of identifying and mapping ES providers to inform decision-making and policy formulation and guide strategies to deal with climate change and other stressors such as land-use changes. Overall, there is an urgent need for conservation and restoration efforts, particularly in densely populated regions at risk of losing provider species and their ES, such as in the Atlantic Forest. Also, further research is crucial for the Caatinga and Pampa regions, where knowledge gaps were identified.