Geographical patterns in climate and agricultural technology drive soybean productivity in Brazil
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2018-01
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The impacts of global climate change have been a worldwide concern for several research
areas, including those dealing with resources essential to human well being, such as agriculture,
which directly impact economic activities and food security. Here we evaluate the
relative effect of climate (as indicated by the Ecological Niche ModelÐENM) and agricultural
technology on actual soybean productivity in Brazilian municipalities and estimate the future
geographic distribution of soybeans using a novel statistical approach allowing the evaluation
of partial coefficients in a non-stationary (Geographically Weighted Regression;
GWR) model. We found that technology was more important than climate in explaining
soybean productivity in Brazil. However, some municipalities are more dependent on environmental
suitability (mainly in Southern Brazil). The future environmental suitability for soybean
cultivation tends to decrease by up 50% in the central region of Brazil. Meanwhile,
southern-most Brazil will have more favourable conditions, with an increase of ca. 25% in
environmental suitability. Considering that opening new areas for cultivation can degrade
environmental quality, we suggest that, in the face of climate change impacts on soybean
cultivation, the Brazilian government and producers must invest in breeding programmes
and more general ecosystem-based strategies for adaptation to climate change, including
the development of varieties tolerant to climate stress, and strategies to increase productivity
and reduce costs (social and environmental).
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CAETANO, Jordana Moura et al. Geographical patterns in climate and agricultural technology drive soybean productivity in Brazil. PLoS One, San Francisco, v. 13, n. 1, e0191273, 2018.