Modelo de acidente de aeronaves por colisão com aves na aviação comercial

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Universidade Federal de Goiás


One of the types of occurrences that have been a problem since the beginning for aviation is bird strikes, which can generate from minor incidents to significant accidents, especially in terms of operating costs for airlines. It is observed in the literature and in the database of official entities, that the occurrence of accidents and incidents increase with the flight movement and aircraft fleet. This shows that studies in this area should be prioritized and bring more assertive responses. Thereby knowledge about what the main factors, how they relate to each other and what most impact this type of accident, collaborates with the operational safety of air transport. In this context, this work aims to present a bird strike accident model for commercial aviation that is able to quantify the impact of the main factors (time, cloud cover, species behavior, species mass, phase of flight, AGL height, affected part of the aircraft), the interrelation of these factors and their probabilities. Thus, a survey of the main factors and occurrences in Brazil between 2011 and 2021 was conducted. From the analysis, the "Bird Strike Accident Model" was proposed, developed using the Bayesian Networks method. Through graphic representation of the model, the impact of the global - among the states that make up the selected factors - was determined in scenarios with and without evidence. Comparing the scenarios with evidence and without evidence of the event, it was identified that the critical scenario in Brazil involves the following factors: fuselage as the main part reached (1º); landing phase as the most critical (2º); aircraft speed up to 80 knots (3º); engine as second main part reached (4º); height AGL up to 500 feet (5º); radome as third main part reached (6º); one bird (7º), mass up to 1,500 grams (8º); night time (9º), clear sky (10º). These results are relevant to the players involved and can contribute to the decision-making process of risk management and operational costs management of airport operators, companies, public and private entities that are related to accident investigations, regulation of civil aviation, training centers, among others.



Transporte aéreo, Modelo de acidentes, Colisões com aves, Segurança, Redes Bayesianas, Air transport, Accident model, Bird strike, Safety, Bayesian networks


AZEVEDO, B. B. Modelo de acidente de aeronaves por colisão com aves na aviação comercial. 2023. 107 f. Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso (Bacharelado em Engenharia de Transportes) - Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Aparecida de Goiânia, 2023.