Meta‐analyzing the likely cross‐species responses to climate change
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2019-08
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Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have different performances in predicting potential
geographic distributions. Here we meta‐analyzed the likely effects of climate change
on the potential geographic distribution of 1,205 bird species from the Neotropical
region, modeled using eight ENMs and three Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation
Models (AOGCM). We considered the variability in ENMs performance to estimate
a weighted mean difference between potential geographic distributions for baseline
and future climates. On average, potential future ranges were projected to be from
25.7% to 44.5% smaller than current potential ranges across species. However, we
found that 0.2% to 18.3% of the total variance in range shifts occurred “within species”
(i.e., owing to the use of different modeling techniques and climate models) and
81.7% to 99.8% remained between species (i.e., it could be explained by ecological
correlates). Using meta‐analytical techniques akin to regression, we also showed that
potential range shifts are barely predicted by bird biological traits. We demonstrated
that one can combine and reduce species‐specific effects with high uncertainty in
ENMs and also explore potential causes of climate change effect on species using
meta‐analytical tools. We also highlight that the search for powerful correlates of
climate change‐induced range shifts can be a promising line of investigation.
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Ecological niche modeling, Uncertainty, Global warming, Species distribution, Meta‐analysis, Range size
Citação
ORTEGA, Jean C. G. et al. Meta-analyzing the likely cross-species responses to climate change. Ecology and Evolution, Nova Jersey, v. 9, n. 19, p. 11136–11144, 2019.