Análise do impacto da geração fotovoltaica na tarifa do setor elétrico brasileiro

Abstract

This study analyzes the technical and economic impacts of the massive insertion of solar photovoltaic energy, in the modalities of Distributed Micro and Minigeneration (MMGD) and Centralized Generation (GC), into the National Interconnected System (SIN) during the 2024 and 2025 biennium. The main objective was to quantify the influence of this generation source on the formation of the Marginal Operating Cost (CMO) and on the triggering of the tariff flags passed on to the final consumer. Methodologically, a computational simulation based on data from the DECOMP model was developed to project hypothetical scenarios of photovoltaic generation suppression and to calculate the marginal systemic costs. The results demonstrated that the solar source acted as a strong financial buffering mechanism in the electricity sector, consolidating a systemic saving of BRL 11.15 billion in 2024 and BRL 15.67 billion in 2025. Over the entire biennium, the pass-through of BRL 26.83 billion to consumers was mitigated, referring to tariff flag surcharges and System Service Charges (ESS). Conversely, the analysis evidenced the exacerbation of operational constraints resulting from the source's intermittency and the steep load ramp, a phenomenon that raised the forced curtailment of centralized generation to 20.7% of the productive potential in 2025. It is concluded that the maintenance of the financial benefits of solar energy is directly conditioned to the infrastructural modernization of the grid, demanding the expansion of transmission lines and the massive regulation of flexibility technologies, notably Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and Pumped-Storage Hydroelectricity (UHR).