Planning for conservation and restoration under climate and land use change in the brazilian Atlantic forest
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2017
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Aim: To propose and compare priority sites for conservation and restoration of woody
plants under diverse climate and land use scenarios, considering socio-economic
costs,
presence of protected areas and distribution of forest remnants.
Location: The Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot, Brazil.
Methods: We used ecological niche modelling to estimate geographical distributions
for 2,255 species under current and future climate scenarios, which we analysed in
relation to spatially explicit land use projections, maps of forest remnants derived from
remote sensing and socio-economic
variables for each municipality within the Atlantic
Forest region. We identified spatial priorities that complement the current network of
protected areas under three different prioritization scenarios: (1) conservation of existing
forest remnants only; (2) conservation of remnants followed by restoration of
degraded habitat; and (3) unconstrained actions, in which management location is not
defined a priori. We compared our results under different levels of land protection,
with targets of 10%, 17% and 20% of the Atlantic Forest extent.
Results: Current forest remnants cover only 12% of the Atlantic Forest, so targets of
17% and 20% were achieved only through active restoration. Targets of 17% and 20%
captured most species and represented on average 26%–34% of species’ distributions.
The spatial pattern of degraded habitats negatively affected representation of
biodiversity and implied higher costs and reduced efficiency of planning. We did not
observe major differences between conservation prioritizations based on contrasting
climate change scenarios.
Main conclusions: Protection of forest remnants alone will not suffice to safeguard
woody plant species under climate and land use changes; therefore, restoration actions
are urgently needed in the Atlantic Forest. With integrated management actions
and multicriterion nationwide planning, reaching the 17% of land protection of Aichi
biodiversity targets will constitute an important step towards protecting Atlantic
Forest biodiversity.
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Aichi targets, climate change, Ecological restoration, Zonation, Land use change, Species distribution modelling, MaxEnt, Spatial conservation prioritization
Citação
ZWIENER, Victor P.; PADIAL, André A.; MARQUES, Márcia C. M.; FALEIRO, Frederico V.; LOYOLA, Rafael; PETERSON, A. Townsend. Planning for conservation and restoration under climate and land use change in the brazilian Atlantic forest. Diversity and Distributions, Oxford, v. 23, n. 8, p. 955-966, 2017. DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12588. Disponível em: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ddi.12588. Acesso em: 16 fev. 2023.