Reducing Wallacean shortfalls for the coralsnakes of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex: present and future distributions under a changing climate
Nenhuma Miniatura disponível
Data
2018-11
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título de Volume
Editor
Resumo
South American coralsnakes are characterized by inconspicuous and poorly known species,
which are potentially very sensitive to climate change. Here, we assess the impact of
future climate change on the distributions of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex after
addressing the Wallacean shortfalls and refining the knowledge about their current geographic
distributions. We also evaluate the efficiency of the current reserve network to protect
the species in the present and future. We applied ecological niche model tools through
a carefully examined set of occurrence records to generate potential present distributions
and to project these distributions into future scenarios of climate change. Specific thresholds
based on occurrence records along with expert opinions were used to delineate the geographic
distribution of each species. A hierarchical ANOVA was applied to evaluate the
uncertainties in species distributions across niche modeling methods and climate models
and nested into the time factor (present and future). Multiple regression models were used
to infer the relative importance of the climatic variables to determine the species’ suitability.
A gap analysis was performed to address the representativeness of species distributions
into protected areas. Predicted geographic distributions were compatible with the known
distributions and the expert opinions, except for M. l. carvalhoi. New areas for field research
were identified. Variation in precipitation was the most important factor defining the habitat
suitability for all species, except for M. diutius. All taxa (except M. l. lemniscatus) will shrink
their distributions in the future; less than 50% of the present suitable areas are protected in
reserve networks, and less than 40% of these areas will be held in reserves in the future.
We found strong evidence that coralsnakes may be highly sensitive to the ongoing changes
and must be protected.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Citação
TERRIBILE, Levi Carina et al. Reducing Wallacean shortfalls for the coralsnakes of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex: present and future distributions under a changing climate. PLoS One, San Francisco, v. 13, n. 11, e0205164, Nov. 2018.