Temperature and precipitation influence the distribution of different Cyperaceae life forms: the role of protected areas in the Amazon for conservation

Abstract

Climate change is the main cause of global biodiversity loss and changes in the structure of ecological communities. Species distribution models are an efficient tool for predicting suitable areas for species and their vulnerability to climate change. In this study, we evaluated the impact of precipitation and temperature (factors of climate change) on 12 species of the Cyperaceae family, classified into three groups: aquatic, amphibian, and terrestrial. Our results provide a comprehensive overview of habitat projections for aquatic, amphibian and terrestrial Cyperaceae species in the Amazon biome under current and future scenarios. We highlight significant range losses projected for species such as Scleria amazonica and Cyperus lacustris in the future. The relationship between climate and its influence on species distribution is critical, emphasizing the urgent need to conserve biodiversity in the face of climate change. In the models, protected areas were essential refuges for species under threat, highlighting their crucial role in preventing biodiversity loss. Variables such as temperature and seasonality (rainfall variability) strongly influenced the distribution patterns of Cyperaceae species. Seasonal fluctuations such as extreme droughts can influence water availability and the growth dynamics of hydrophytic plants. Amphibian species adapt to temperature fluctuations and changes in precipitation, while terrestrial plants prefer warmer and rainy regions. Our results emphasize the importance of conservation strategies for Amazonian species. We have also shown that protected areas play an essential role in conserving biodiversity and protecting Cyperaceae species from future changes.