Estimating the world’s potentially available cropland using a bottom-up approach
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2013
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Resumo
Previous estimates of the land area available for future cropland expansion relied on global-scale climate,
soil and terrain data. They did not include a range of constraints and tradeoffs associated with land
conversion. As a result, estimates of the global land reserve have been high. Here we adjust these
estimates for the aforementioned constraints and tradeoffs. We define potentially available cropland as
the moderately to highly productive land that could be used in the coming years for rainfed farming, with
low to moderate capital investments, and that is not under intact mature forests, legally protected, or
already intensively managed. This productive land is underutilized rather than unused as it has
ecological or social functions. We also define potentially available cropland that accounts for trade-offs
between gains in agricultural production and losses in ecosystem and social services from intensified
agriculture, to include only the potentially available cropland that would entail low ecological and social
costs with conversion to cropland. In contrast to previous studies, we adopt a ‘‘bottom-up’’ approach by
analyzing detailed, fine scale observations with expert knowledge for six countries or regions that are
often assumed to include most of potentially available cropland. We conclude first that there is
substantially less potential additional cropland than is generally assumed once constraints and trade offs
are taken into account, and secondly that converting land is always associated with significant social and
ecological costs. Future expansion of agricultural production will encounter a complex landscape of
competing demands and tradeoffs.
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Agro-ecological zone, Degraded lands, Land reserve, Food security, Land use, Land change, Agriculture
Citação
LAMBIN, E.F. et al. Estimating the world's potentially available cropland using a bottom-up approach. Global Environmental Change, Amsterdam, v. 23, n. 5, p. 892-901, 2013.