Overprediction of species distribution models in conservation planning: a still neglected issue with strong effects

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dc.creatorElías Velazco, Santiago José
dc.creatorRibeiro, Bruno Roberto
dc.creatorLaureto, Livia Maira Orlandi
dc.creatorMarco Júnior, Paulo De
dc.date.accessioned2023-08-10T12:21:34Z
dc.date.available2023-08-10T12:21:34Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractSpecies distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used in conservation planning to identify priority areas for the establishment of protected areas. Nevertheless, the quality of SDM varies widely and may compromise the effectiveness of protected areas. Here we reviewed whether SDM overprediction is considered in spatial conservation prioritization exercises and evaluated how model overprediction influences the effectiveness and the spatial arrangement of priority areas. To do so, we carried out a systematic review to analyze how researchers have handled SDM overprediction when identifying priority areas for conservation. To show how spatial conservation prioritization outcomes are affected by SDM overprediction, we used SDM of native palm at three geographic scales (Neotropics, Amazon ecoregion, and Ecuadorian Amazon). We found that only 10% of the evaluated manuscripts accounted for model overprediction. Our spatial conservation prioritization based on SDM with overprediction conferred high priority rank values in a region where species do not occur, underestimated the efficiency of selected priority areas, and over or underestimated the efficiency of current protected areas. Such effects were lower at smaller geographic extents. Our findings highlight the importance of improving future spatial conservation prioritization studies through the correction of SDM overprediction, resulting in the detection of more adequate areas for species conservation, especially at broader extents.pt_BR
dc.identifier.citationELÍAS VELAZCO, Santiago José et al. Overprediction of species distribution models in conservation planning: a still neglected issue with strong effects. Biological Conservation, Amsterdam, v. 252, e108822, 2020. DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2020.108822. Disponível em: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320720308806. Acesso em: 25 jul. 2023.pt_BR
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.biocon.2020.108822
dc.identifier.issn0006-3207
dc.identifier.issne- 1873-2917
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320720308806
dc.identifier.urihttp://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/handle/ri/23254
dc.language.isoengpt_BR
dc.publisher.countryHolandapt_BR
dc.publisher.departmentInstituto de Ciências Biológicas - ICB (RMG)pt_BR
dc.rightsAcesso Restritopt_BR
dc.subjectZonationpt_BR
dc.subjectCommission errorpt_BR
dc.subjectConservation decisionspt_BR
dc.subjectSystematic conservation planningpt_BR
dc.titleOverprediction of species distribution models in conservation planning: a still neglected issue with strong effectspt_BR
dc.typeArtigopt_BR

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